XRP recovers but weak derivatives data limits bullish conviction

Key takeaways

• XRP’s long-to-short ratio stands at a bullish 1.06 as funding rates turn negative. 
• XRP holds above its 50-day and 100-day EMAs at $1.284 and $1.255.
• A daily close above the 200-day EMA at $1.353 could place $1.90 in focus.

XRP extended its recoveries on Thursday after finding support at important technical levels. However, conflicting funding rates, long-to-short positioning, and on-chain signals indicate that traders remain uncertain about whether the rebounds can continue.

XRP traded near $1.30 while holding above its 50-day and 100-day exponential moving averages. A close above the 200-day EMA at $1.353 is required to strengthen its recovery.

XRP traders show mixed positioning

XRP’s long-to-short ratio rose to 1.06 on Thursday, approaching its highest level in more than a month, according to CoinGlass.

A ratio above one means traders hold more long positions than shorts, signaling a moderately bullish positioning bias.

Funding rates complicate the derivatives outlook for both tokens. XRP’s funding rate turned negative on Wednesday and stood at -0.0040% on Thursday. 

Negative funding means short-position holders are paying longs, indicating that bearish positioning has become more aggressive.

This conflicts with XRP’s bullish long-to-short ratio and highlights the lack of consensus among futures traders.

CryptoQuant’s summary indicators point to cautious conditions across XRP’s spot and futures markets.

XRP is showing signs of overheating, while its futures market reflects sell-side dominance. Increased activity from retail traders could also introduce additional volatility if leveraged positions become crowded.

Taken together, the metrics suggest that XRP has not attracted enough consistent demand to confirm a sustained recovery.

XRP holds above the $1.25–$1.28 support zone

XRP traded near $1.30 on Thursday, maintaining a neutral and range-bound technical structure. The token remains slightly above its 50-day EMA at $1.284 and its 100-day EMA at $1.255. These moving averages create a broader demand zone between approximately $1.25 and $1.28.

The Relative Strength Index stands near 46, signaling neutral-to-weak momentum. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator remains below zero, showing that bullish pressure has yet to recover fully.

A break below the moving-average support cluster could expose the psychological $1 level.

The 200-day EMA at $1.353 represents XRP’s most important near-term resistance. A daily close above this level would improve the technical outlook and could open a path toward the next major horizontal resistance near $1.90.

Failure to clear $1.353 would keep XRP trapped within its current range and leave the $1.30 area vulnerable to another pullback.